0-3 Years

Newbies

The "Club of Friends" Phase
⚠️

The Trap

Relying on the same group of initial viewers ("Family").

💡

Observation

80% of your "friends" will leave if you stream for 5+ years. Don't build a closed system.

Practical Advice

  • Focus on consistency, but don't obsess over "loyalty" yet.
  • Establish rituals (start/end of stream) early, even if you only have 5 viewers.
  • Prepare your "trap" for new viewers (Discord, welcome rituals) BEFORE you get a boost.
  • Don't pray for a raid/boost if you aren't ready to capture the traffic.
3-5 Years

Middle Class

The Transition / Crisis Point
⚠️

The Shift

The "Club of Friends" model dies. The "Core & Flow" model must take over.

💡

Observation

Emotional burnout often happens here because old viewers leave.

Practical Advice

  • Accept that losing old viewers is normal (it's a function of time, not your failure).
  • Changing formats without a boost often leads to drops. Experiment carefully.
  • Transition to a model where you have a 20% core and 80% flow of new viewers.
5+ Years

Veterans

The "Core & Flow" Model
⚠️

The Reality

"Stability" is an illusion. You are constantly managing loss.

💡

Observation

High online count doesn't mean high loyalty. Chat activity is a better integrity metric than view count.

Practical Advice

  • Your goal is "Loss Management", not just "Accumulation".
  • Active chat is more important than online count. If online is stable but chat is dead, you are stagnating.
  • Personalized channels (personality-based) hold retention better but are harder to change formats.
  • Content-centric channels change formats easily but lose viewers faster.

The Churn Graph

Old viewers slowly decline, new ones must rise to replace them.

100%50%0%
The Trap ("Family")
The "Core & Flow" Model (Flow)
0y
3y
5y+

Universal Truths

The Bus Theory

A stream is like a bus. People get on and off. Don't be offended by those who get off at their stop. That's life.

The Integrity Metric

View count can be botted or inflated. Active chat cannot be faked. Look at the chat, not the 'eye' icon.

You Are Not Your View Count

When the number drops, you feel like you are becoming a worse person. This is a lie. It's just a number on a screen, dependent on seasons, time of day, and algorithms.